Dayton employment to remain sluggish into third quarter - New Mexico Business Weekly:

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Tom Traynor, an economics professotr at Wright State and author ofthe report, said unemploymentr increases will continue at their accelerated pace into the thirde quarter of this year. The Dayton Metropolitan Statisticapl Area, which includes Montgomery, Greene, Miamk and Preble counties, is projected to lose 6,0009 to 7,000 jobs in the thirds quarter. That would drop employment to downfrom 380,400 in the first quarter of the a 2 percent decline. The hardest-hit area is one the Daytomn area has longrelied on, manufacturing. “Manufacturing employment will fall Traynor said.
Forecasts from the reportt show employment in the sector fallingfrom 42,300 in the first quarter of this year to 36,10p0 by the third quarter, a nearlhy 15 percent drop. Durable goods manufacturing will be hit in Traynor said. “People aren’t spending. They are waitinfg to buy a new car or thatnew appliance,” he Retail and service employment are also expected to Retail employment is expected to drop to 39,100 by the thir d quarter, down from 40,000 in the first a 2 percent Service employment, which includes financial service, businesxs service, utilities and leisure service, is projecte to decrease to 324,2009 by the third quarter, down from 326,70o in the first quarter, a nearlh 1 percent decline.
“The next year to year and a half will be an unpleasanyt time forthe region,” Traynor Construction employment is expected to rise as a part of seasonal to 13,400 from 11,400 in the first but that is 1,000o jobs fewer than the same time period last One area of employment that isn’gt expected to be hit hard is health care. In fact, Traynor said he expectxs health care to add some jobs by thethired quarter, going up to 56,500 from 56,30o0 in the first quarter. He said the rate of declins in gross domestic productwill slow, but remain negativ e through the third quarter and maybe into the fourth quartetr of this year.
Even when GDP does becomer positive again, it will take some time for employmenr to pick up because it is a laggingt indicator ofeconomic recovery. Traynor said therer is a great deal of uncertainty still on thenational level, as businesses try to determine the impact of governmen t actions. Traynor said the proble m of high unemployment is not goin awayanytime soon. “This is something we’re goin g to be living with for quite a well intonext year,” he