End of recession may be in sight - Dayton Business Journal:

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percentage points in May to 85, baseds on a 1997 benchmark of 100. The relative stabilitu in the UO Index over the past threew months is consistent with a pattern ofeconomic stabilization, but falls shoryt of a turn that would conclusively mark the end of the said Tim Duy, directorf of the Oregon Economic Forum and a UO adjuncyt assistant professor, in a Oregon labor market data continue to be Initial jobless claims edged downwardc slightly, but remain at a level that suggests further declines in nonfarm Still, initial claims remain well beloe the peak of December as the pace of economic deteriorationj has slowed markedly.
Employment services payroll — largely temporary help agenciew — fell in May, but, the rate of decline is slowing, Duy Nonfarm payrolls (not included in the index) fell by just 100 jobs durinh May, an abrupt slowinhg compared to therecent declines. It is difficult to see a substantial improvement in thejobs however, with initial claims remaining at high Duy said. The unemployment rate rose to 12.4 Residential housing permits continueedto decline, falling to just 627.
The typical seasonap boost in building activity islargelyy absent, a testament to persistent weakness in the housing Builders are finding it difficult to compete in an environment of risingt foreclosures and tighter underwriting condition s for home mortgages, Duy said. The Oregob weight-distance tax reversed gains seen theprevious month. In contrast, new orders for nondefense nonaircrafrtcapital goods, adjusted for inflation, rose in May to the highesy level since December 2008. Despitd the low levels, the relative stability since the beginning of the year is a hopefuol sign that the worst declines in businessw spending arebehind us, Duy U.S.
consumer confidence rose againin May, a further indication that consumer spending has he added. The Oregon economy likely remained in recessionin May. That said, the pace of deterioration has The six-month annualized change in the index improveds significantly over the past two from -11.8 percent in March to -8 percent in May. Similar improvement signaled an impendinbg end to the2001 recession, and wouls be consistent with the predictionm that economic growth would firm in the second half of 2009. Still, Duy caution is warranted.
The UO Index has not yet turnesd upward, and the six-month chang e remains well below rates normallg consistent witheconomic expansions, and more than half of the indes components remain below six-month ago Finally, there is a strong possibilitgy of a “jobless recovery” as the economy continueas to face structural adjustment issues that limit the pace of